MANAGEMENT UPDATE.

DOES GETTING TOUGHER ON CRIME MAKE PEOPLE SAFER?

By Michael Mitchell, Lead Researcher, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Earlier this year, lawmakers in Kentucky and Louisiana joined a number of other states when they passed "tough-on-crime" bills that will result in higher rates of incarceration and longer sentences.

In Louisiana, 20 bills passed in a special session in February increased minimum sentences for carjacking, restricted sentence reductions for good behavior, eliminated parole for most adults, and allowed 17-year-olds to be charged as adults for non-violent crimes.

In Kentucky, lawmakers overrode a gubernatorial veto to pass HB 5, a sweeping bill which broadens the definition of violent offenses, increases penalties, establishes a "three strikes" law, criminalizes homelessness, and penalizes parents of children in the youth justice system.

These measures are theoretically aimed at addressing crime, but they are outdated and ineffective, and will burden state budgets and harm individuals and their families. Instead of adopting draconian criminal legal policies, lawmakers should invest in basic needs to reduce crime and support community well-being.

Reported crime has been in decline for decades. In fact, from 1991 to 2022, Louisiana saw a 34% drop in violent crime and a 50% decrease in property crime. Kentucky, which has ﷟ typically had a crime rate well below the national average, experienced a 50% reduction in both categories. Though both states saw a pandemic-related bump in crime, rates remain historically low. Preliminary FBI data suggests a national decline in crime in 2023 that has continued into 2024.

What’s more, harsh criminal legal policies that rely on locking more people up and longer sentences are less effective than lawmakers believe. High incarceration rates have diminishing returns on crime reduction. Instead of reducing crime, these policies can make life worse for many people. Harsh criminal legal policies can be deeply harmful to the individuals who are locked up, to their partners, and to children – disproportionately harming Black communities and other communities of color due to systemic biases in policing and unjust treatment in the criminal legal system.

Not only are harsher criminal legal policies ineffective, they are also expensive. In 2022, states spent a total of $55 billion from their general funds on corrections. For most states, corrections spending is the fourth-largest general fund expenditure, behind K-12 schools, higher education spending, and Medicaid. Increased prison populations drive up costs, potentially at the expense of other budget priorities.

Fiscal estimates on the bills in Louisiana and Kentucky back up these cost concerns. Fifteen of the 20 bills passed in Louisiana are estimated to increase state spending. Louisiana's new bills could cost up to $250 million annually, and researchers estimated that just a few sections of Kentucky's HB 5 could cost $1 billion over the next decade.

Instead of spending money on tougher penalties that can make life worse for people, lawmakers should consider alternatives that enhance safety and contribute to residents' well-being:

For children, there’s strong empirical evidence that a range of community-based alternatives reduce offenses by youth at higher risk of interaction with the criminal legal system.
Research has also indicated that expanding access to Medicaid, mental health services, and substance use disorder treatment programs can reduce both violent and property crime.
Higher levels of educational attainment have been linked with reductions in violent crime, and increasing access to education and work programs for people who are incarcerated can lower the chance of recidivism.
Increases in income and improved access to economic security programs can also help reduce property crime.