GUEST COLUMN.
PREPARING TODAY FOR RISING TIDES TOMORROW
By Andrew J. Grandage, Assistant Professor at Western Carolina University, Robert E. Hines, Assistant Professor at University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Katherine G. Willoughby, Golembiewski Professor of Public Administration and Policy at University of Georgia and Mathew E. Hauer, Charles B. Nam Associate Professor of Sociology at Florida State University
Coastal local governments are the first responders to the growing threat of sea level rise. The threats of sea level rise are vast and include increasing coastal flooding, the intrusion of saltwater into groundwater, and the future loss of coastal lands. Local governments will not only need to plan for the risk such physical changes pose to their communities, but also for the risks they face as rising tides threaten to damage key infrastructure systems, important tax bases, and displace at-risk populations.
Sea level rise is a wicked problem that local governments are just beginning to address. Most local policies represent broad, long-term planning practices aimed at addressing the government and community-wide risks that it poses. These governments tend to develop more specific and focused policies for water supply and stormwater issues as well as threatened capital assets.
The southeast region of the United States has diverse urban and rural settings, governments with differing levels of capacity, and a wide range of risk exposure. Our research illustrates what coastal county governments across the southeast are doing to become resilient to the threat of sea level rise. Central to this effort was a collection of policies from the financial reports, governing body meetings, and comprehensive land use plans for all coastal counties from North Carolina down to Florida and around to Louisiana.
The good news is that many of these localities are taking actions that have the potential of making themselves more resilient. Across the southeast, 60% of these counties have at least recognized the threat posed by sea level rise. Many have gone further. Some 40% of southeastern coastal counties have begun to develop options to address sea level rise.
Still, progress is not consistent across the southeast with certain governments having advanced more than others. We found that counties with larger population bases, more capacity, and higher levels of risk exposure are more likely to be addressing the hazards of sea level rise. That said, among the counties we found to be addressing such hazards, those with higher shares of left-leaning voters tend to identify more risks and strategies for dealing with them.
For governments, regardless of political bent, that are working to take the first steps, gathering data and making forecasts can be powerful tools.
For examples, governments that have generated data on the nature of their sea level risks and applied it in risk assessment have tackled the threat of sea level rise in more service areas, across more types of risks, and used more distinct sea level rise tactics.
What’s more, governments can work to make the vague threat of future sea level rise tangible by forecasting future sea level rise levels and applying those forecasts into specific risk assessments, Ideally, forecasts and risks assessments can turn sea level rise risks from an opaque threat into a more tractable problem for which policy options can be developed, assessed, prioritized, sequenced, and eventually implemented. Of course, such forecasts are inherently uncertain, and communities facing urgent needs with limited resources must weigh the options of addressing sea level rise now, or in the future when information becomes less uncertain.
Given the fact that sea level rise forecasts are inherently uncertain and the difficulty in predicting future rise, conservative estimates may help ensure that governments maintain a viable service floor in a worst-case scenario. In other circumstances, policy options which allow governments to manage uncertainty by planning out options which can be dynamically deployed in response to observed changes may be ideal.
As seas continue to rise and threaten physical infrastructure systems with decades-long useful lives, public and elected officials will have to make challenging budgetary decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. For instance, when faced with funding investments which protect assets that are mission critical but unlikely to be damaged by rising seas versus assets that are certain to fail but less important, different governments may come to dissimilar conclusions about the proper course of action or actions.
Sea level rise presents a tremendous threat to coastal areas, but coastal counties in the United States are taking the steps necessary to make themselves more resilient by planning for rising tides. Sea level rise is a current problem that necessitates action now. The most forward-thinking counties today have already begun to assess the risk that sea level rise poses to their communities and critical assets, considering their ability to continue to provide services and future vitality given such risk. Other counties have recognized the threat that rising seas pose and are following close in their wake. With time, local governments may be able to develop effective, bottom-up policies which improve their ability to be the first and best responders to the threat of rising tides.
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